[http://knowledgeinfusion.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/ki 1_1.jpg] Anyone who owns economically sensitive stocks (e.g., retailers) likely took a hit to their portfolio on Thursday. I was reading a story on TheStreet.com (see Gold Up on Dour Data) today about a spike in gold prices due to the soft or hard economic landing that may be upon us. The storyâ??s focus about a commodity whose price goes up when the strength of the dollar goes down was not particularly compelling to a management consultant like me. What struck me was news out of the Labor Department driving the fear that the Federal Reserve might have to put the brakes on our economy with further inflation-fighting interest rate hikes.

What news, you ask? The Labor Department reported that productivity in the third quarter was flat, as the tight labor market led to less output per worker. Economists Embedded in the productivity report, unit labor costs rose 3.8%, higher than the 3.4% rise that economists expected. The jump means unit labor costs are rising at a 5.3% pace year over year -- the highest level since 1982, and well above the 20-year average of 1.9% according to the report.

So does this mean that talented people are really getting harder to find? I think itâ??s an indicator. While the numbers above represent just a few data points marking what occurred in a 3-month period, anecdotally, I can tell you that a lot of the clients Knowledge Infusion works with have more openings than qualified people.

Do the higher wages mean that employees are gaining leverage with their employers? The ones with the right skills and experience are.

Does it mean that US companies have stretched the limits of business process re-engineering and outsourcing work or starting new operations in regions where wages are lower? No. But the shortage of qualified people in this country will far outstrip what multinationals can reallocate for years to come as Baby Boomers opt for a gold watch (i.e., retirement). Research from a variety of credible sources like The Conference Board, The Economist, and Knowledge Infusion (You probably guessed Iâ??m partial to this organization! You can download the results of a benchmarking study we did on the impact of Baby Boomer retirement, how a shortage of talent is hindering shareholder value at a lot of companies in many different ways, and how organizations are dealing with it here or just email me at mailto:mike.brennan@knowledge-infusion.com so that I can send it to you.).

Is this good news for smart HR and non-HR managers who are adept at efficiently managing talent (i.e., attracting, developing, deploying, and rewarding skillful people)? You bet it does. And it is also good news to the technology and services vendors who can help.

Am I painting the picture with broad strokes here? Absolutely. I realize the tight labor market is not universal, not every organization is starved for senior leadership, and that not every talented person has a great job and 3 offers from other employers. However, Iâ??m not just reading about a talent shortage. Iâ??m hearing it from clients every day â?? from the retailers who canâ??t find enough people to open new locations to a global financial services firm who would like to fill 6,000 positions yesterday.

WHAT DO YOU SEE HAPPENING AT YOUR ORGANIZATION? ARE GOOD PEOPLE TOUGHER TO FIND? ARE WAGES GOING UP? IS PRODUCTIVITY AT RISK? IS HR BEING CALLED UPON TO HELP? SEND SOME COMMENTS!